


Outlier: A FiveThirtyEight Chat

by implicated2



Category: FiveThirtyEight Journalism RPF
Genre: Holiday Silliness, M/M, chat transcript, emoji
Language: English
Status: Completed
Published: 2017-12-25
Updated: 2017-12-25
Packaged: 2019-02-20 13:30:26
Rating: Teen And Up Audiences
Warnings: No Archive Warnings Apply
Chapters: 1
Words: 1,139
Publisher: archiveofourown.org
Story URL: https://archiveofourown.org/works/13147716
Author URL: https://archiveofourown.org/users/implicated2/pseuds/implicated2
Summary: In which the FiveThirtyEight crew makes fewer predictions than expected.





	Outlier: A FiveThirtyEight Chat

**Author's Note:**

  * For [tearupthesky](https://archiveofourown.org/users/tearupthesky/gifts).



> Content notes: discussion of politics, discussion of workplace sexual harassment

**micah:** Welcome to the penultimate fivethirtyeight politics chat of 2017. We're going to play buy/sell/hold on some predictions for 2018.

**clare.malone:** And not get distracted by the fact that the holiday party starts as soon as we wrap this chat.

**micah:** As soon as we edit this chat. Which will be easy because we're going to stay on topic. Harry, we'll start with a straightforward one. Democrats winning the house in 2018. PredictIt has it at 60%. Buy, sell, or hold?

**clare.malone:** Before we go there, the question on everyone's mind about the holiday party. Will there be mistletoe?

**jody:** Is that the question on everyone's mind?

**harry:** It's the question on my mind, but only because my question about the drink selection has been addressed.

**clare.malone:** That's not the only reason the question is on Harry's mind.

**harry:** It's the only reason we talk about on slack, Clare.

**micah:** Harry, 60%. Buy, sell, or hold?

**harry:** At 60, buy.

**natesilver:** You're buying?

**harry:** The latest CNN survey has Democrats up by 18 points on the generic ballot. Republicans are in a historically unfavorable position.

**natesilver:** Historically unfavorable, sure. But sixty's high, and there's still a lot of uncertainty.

**clare.malone:** I notice no one has answered my mistletoe question.

**natesilver:** Of course there's not going to be mistletoe.

**harry:** Wait, there's not?

**jody:** Nate's a sell on mistletoe.

**natesilver:** That's not how buy/sell/hold works. If the conventional wisdom says there's no chance we'll have mistletoe, and I think there's a nonzero chance some dumbass will decide to hang some up at the party anyway, then I buy. But if you're asking if there _should_ be mistletoe at a workplace holiday party, the answer is obviously fucking not.

**micah:** What's your reasoning?

**natesilver:** Sexual harrassment? #MeToo? You can't have a thing at a work holiday party that essentially encourages people to kiss their subordinates.

**clare.malone:** You could change the rules.

**harry:** The harrassment rules?

**clare.malone:** The mistletoe rules. Instead of having to kiss someone if you're caught under the mistletoe together, you, I don't know...

**jody:** Say something nice about the other person?

**clare.malone:** I was going to go with ask if you can kiss them. Consensual mistletoe kissing.

**natesilver:** But asking doesn't make it consensual. There's still an unequal power dynamic. There's all these factors you have to account for, like who's watching, what are the potential consequences of saying no.

**micah:** Sounds like we need a model.

**harry:** You'd have to factor in the subordinate's side of things though.

**natesilver:** I don't need a model to tell me I can't ask my employee to kiss me.

**harry:** What kind of weight the subordinate attaches to kissing, whether the subordinate comes from a tradition that believes in mistletoe or whether he'd just kiss or not kiss of his own free will. Whether the subordinate's interested.

**clare.malone:** To be clear, most of the time, the subordinate is not interested.

**harry:** Sometimes there are outliers, Clare.

**micah:** Harry, 2018. Democrats take the House. Buy, sell, or hold?

**natesilver:** What kind of weight the subordinate attaches to kissing??? You poll 1000 employees, how many of them do you think are going to say, Gosh, I just don't attach any weight to kissing at all?

**micah:** I thought you didn't need a model, Nate.

**natesilver:** He's claiming there's a nontrivial number of people who _just wouldn't care_ if their bosses kissed them.

**clare.malone:** Nate needs something to argue against more than he doesn't need a model.

**micah:** Harry, please get us back on track.

**harry:** What about virtual mistletoe?

**micah:** Virtual mistletoe.

**clare.malone:** :herb:

**clare.malone:** That's technically the herb emoji, but...?

**jody:** Slackletoe.

**jody:** Mistletext.

**clare.malone:** Do emojis count as text?

**natesilver:** What are you supposed to do with virtual mistletoe?

**clare.malone:** Maybe it's like regular mistletoe, but you get caught chatting under it instead of standing under it.

**natesilver:** So how is that better than regular mistletoe?

**harry:** Maybe the subordinate attaches less weight to virtual kissing.

**micah:** Question for the room. Why is this group so invested in mistletoe, virtual or otherwise?

**harry:** No comment.

**clare.malone:** Micah, sometimes when a senior political writer and an editor-in-chief love each other very much...

**natesilver:** ...they keep their lips to themselves because they have a modicum of professional ethics.

**clare.malone:** I just heard Nate pound his fist on his office desk.

**harry:** What do you mean, love _each other_ very much?

**micah:** Oh god.

**clare.malone:** Harry, you've heard how Nate talks about you, right?

**natesilver:** Clare!

**harry:** Uh, Nate, really?

**natesilver:** What part of bosses can't hit on their employees do you four not understand?

**harry:** Maybe the part where I'm an outlier.

**micah:** Meaning...

**harry:** Obviously bosses shouldn't hit on their employees. Obviously people shouldn't hang mistletoe at office holiday parties. But if Nathaniel were to do either of those things, with me... let's just say they wouldn't be unwanted advances.

**natesilver:** Uh, okay. This is maybe a conversation that shouldn't happen on chat.

**micah:** Right. Buy/sell/hold. Nate, criminal charges brought against someone high up in the current administration. Currently at 25%.

**clare.malone:** Wait, hang on.

**clare.malone:** :herb::herb::herb:

**natesilver:** Someone high up in the administration as in...

**natesilver:** Guys?

**natesilver:** Is no one talking because Clare posted mistletext? You realize I'm still not playing this game, right? I'm not going to ask anyone to kiss me.

**natesilver:** Or, what, send me kiss emojis? What are we, fucking twelve?

**harry:** But just so you know, if you did ask...

**jody:** And... it's Nate and Harry.

**clare.malone:** Caught under the mistletext.  :kissing face::kissing face::kissing face:

**natesilver:** Moving on...

**micah:** Moving on.

**harry:** Hey Nate? Can I talk to you in your office for a minute?

**jody:** Whoa.

**natesilver:** Uh, sure.

**clare.malone:** :eyes:

**jody:** Wow. A closed-door meeting.

**clare.malone:** Score one for mistletext?

**micah:** They might just be talking.

**clare.malone:** Jody, Nate and Harry are totally making out in Nate's office right now. Buy, sell, or hold?

**jody:** Oh boy. Hold?

**clare.malone:** Okay, one, that's the coward's answer. But two, the fact that Nate didn't jump in to tell us that's not how buy/sell/hold works suggests that he is currently otherwise engaged.

**jody:** Which could just mean talking.

**micah:** We are never going to get through this chat, are we?

**clare.malone:** On the upside, you won't have to edit it before the party.

**jody:** What's the over-under on Nate and Harry making it to the party?

**clare.malone:** Jody, that sounds filthy.

**natesilver:** lkj'klj;';'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''

**clare.malone:** Did someone just sit on Nate's keyboard?

**micah:** ...and that's a wrap, folks.

**clare.malone:** :herb::herb::herb::herb::herb:

**jody:** Happy holidays, everybody!

**Author's Note:**

> Happy Yuletide (Madness)! And thank you for the delight that is fivethirtydate.


End file.
